51 patterns in 10 categories — a systematic framework for finding edge in event markets.
Directional Alpha is a structured approach to prediction market trading. Instead of relying on intuition or hot takes, it breaks down edge-finding into repeatable patterns across 10 categories. Each pattern has defined entry criteria, expected holding period, and risk characteristics.
Structural mispricings based on balance sheet analysis, regulatory changes, or ownership dynamics.
Price patterns in prediction market contracts — mean reversion, momentum, volume anomalies.
Known upcoming events (earnings, elections, matchdays) where the market underprices volatility.
Systematic biases in how crowds price events — recency bias, anchoring, overconfidence.
Platform-specific inefficiencies — liquidity gaps, settlement mechanics, fee structures.
Edge from faster or deeper information access — the European Edge, domain expertise, local media.
Arbitrage and correlation between different platforms or related contracts.
Time-based patterns — day-of-week effects, pre-event compression, post-event drift.
Fading consensus when crowd positioning becomes extreme. Requires conviction and sizing discipline.
Multi-factor signals combining patterns from different categories for higher-conviction trades.
The framework is domain-agnostic. The same behavioral patterns that cause mispricing in Bundesliga transfer markets also appear in Fed rate decision contracts. The same structural arbitrage between Polymarket and Kalshi applies to both finance and sports events. Directional Alpha is the shared trading language across all Altus Alpha verticals.