Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0065
Bid / Ask
0.0060 / 0.0070 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$2,537
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
1.36 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 20.89 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Arizona Diamondbacks", exact)
As of
2026-06-03 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright (World Series winner) for a specific team. Event date aligns with typical World Series completion window (late October 2026). Resolution source is official MLB data, which is universally accepted for sports outcomes on Pinnacle. No ambiguity in outcome definition — either the Diamondbacks win or they don't. This is a canonical Class A match with high confidence of finding an identical or near-identical market on Pinnacle Sportsbook.
Canonical form
Arizona Diamondbacks · Season Outright - Championship Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 22 snapshots, oldest first):