Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-atlanta-braves-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0930
Bid / Ask
0.0900 / 0.0960 (1c spread)
Volume 24h
$3,423
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
8.27 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 20.89 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Atlanta Braves", exact)
As of
2026-06-03 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
1.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright market. Pinnacle offers comprehensive World Series winner markets for all 30 MLB teams. Resolution date aligns with typical World Series completion (late October 2026). Outcome is binary (Braves win or do not win). Identical to Pinnacle's standard 'World Series Winner' offerings. High confidence for direct Class A match.
Canonical form
Atlanta Braves · Season Outright Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 13 snapshots, oldest first):

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