Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-atlanta-hawks-win-the-2026-nba-finals__pinnacle

Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0015
Bid / Ask
0.0010 / 0.0020 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$260,673
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-07-01
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-basketball_nba_championship_winner-outrights
Implied probability
1.12 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle basketball_nba_championship_winner outrights, vig 19.50 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Atlanta Hawks", exact)
As of
2026-07-18 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Canonical team championship outright bet for 2026 NBA Finals. Pinnacle offers comprehensive NBA season outrights including Finals winners. Identical outcome structure, resolution date aligns with Finals completion window, and NBA is accepted resolution source for all major sportsbooks. No quantitative thresholds or ambiguous naming conventions.
Canonical form
Atlanta Hawks · Tournament Winner - Season Outright · 2026-07-01

History

Spread history (last 8 snapshots, oldest first):

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