Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-baltimore-orioles-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0220
Bid / Ask
0.0210 / 0.0230 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$10,099
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
1.29 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 20.89 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Baltimore Orioles", exact)
As of
2026-06-03 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright market for World Series winner. Domain is sports (tournament winner). Event date aligns with typical World Series completion window (late October 2026). Outcome is binary (Orioles win or do not win). Pinnacle and major sportsbooks offer identical World Series winner markets with official MLB as resolution source. Expected match class A: identical outcome, identical resolution date, identical resolution authority.
Canonical form
Baltimore Orioles · Season Outright - Tournament Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 22 snapshots, oldest first):

← Back to overview