Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-chicago-cubs-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0455
Bid / Ask
0.0450 / 0.0460 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$1,881
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
4.14 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 20.89 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Chicago Cubs", exact)
As of
2026-06-03 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Standardisierte Saison-Outright-Frage für MLB Championship. Identische Struktur zu etablierten Sportsbook-Märkten (Pinnacle, DraftKings, etc.). Event-Datum liegt vor Saisonende. Outcome ist eindeutig definiert (spezifisches Team, binäres Resultat). Resolution-Source ist MLB-Standard. Klasse A erwartet: identisches Outcome, Termin, Quelle.
Canonical form
MLB World Series 2026 · Season Outright - Championship Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 13 snapshots, oldest first):

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