Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-cleveland-guardians-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0395
Bid / Ask
0.0370 / 0.0420 (1c spread)
Volume 24h
$1,068
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
2.96 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 20.89 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Cleveland Guardians", exact)
As of
2026-06-03 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
1.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Standardisierte Saison-Outright-Frage für MLB World Series. Pinnacle führt umfassende World Series Champion Markets. Resolution-Termin liegt nach erwarteter Serienendung (typisch Ende Oktober 2026). Outcome ist eindeutig definiert (binär: Guardians gewinnen ja/nein). Quelle MLB.com ist Standard für Pinnacle-Sport-Markets. Keine Abweichungen von kanonischer Form erkannt → Klasse A.
Canonical form
Cleveland Guardians · Season Outright Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 22 snapshots, oldest first):

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