Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-colorado-rockies-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0065
Bid / Ask
0.0060 / 0.0070 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$34,811
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
0.09 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 20.89 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Colorado Rockies", exact)
As of
2026-06-03 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright (World Series winner). Identical quantitative outcome (single team wins championship), matching resolution date (end of 2026 MLB season), and universally accepted resolution source (MLB official). Pinnacle and most major sportsbooks offer World Series winner markets for all 30 MLB teams. High confidence for Class A match.
Canonical form
Colorado Rockies · Season Outright - Tournament Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 22 snapshots, oldest first):

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