Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-detroit-pistons-win-the-2026-nba-finals__pinnacle

Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0375
Bid / Ask
0.0370 / 0.0380 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$151,933
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-07-01
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-basketball_nba_championship_winner-outrights
Implied probability
3.04 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle basketball_nba_championship_winner outrights, vig 19.50 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Detroit Pistons", exact)
As of
2026-07-18 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Klassische Season-Outright-Frage für NBA-Championship. Detroit Pistons vs. 2026 NBA Finals ist eine standardisierte Basketballwette mit eindeutiger Auflösungslogik (Sieg oder Niederlage). Pinnacle bietet regulär solche Team-Championship-Wetten an. Auflösungstermin 2026-07-01 liegt unmittelbar nach erwarteter Finals-Beendigung (Finals typisch Juni-Ende), Resolution-Quelle NBA ist kanonisch. Klasse A erwartet, da identische quantitative Größe, exakter Outcome und akzeptierte Quelle.
Canonical form
Detroit Pistons · Season Outright - Championship Winner · 2026-06-30

History

Spread history (last 20 snapshots, oldest first):

2 colour changes in the tracking window.

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