Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-houston-astros-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0065
Bid / Ask
0.0060 / 0.0070 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$7,470
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
1.62 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 20.89 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Houston Astros", exact)
As of
2026-06-03 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright market on a major sportsbook (Pinnacle). Identical event type (World Series winner), identical team, identical resolution date (end of October 2026). Resolution source is official MLB, which is standard and acceptable. No ambiguity in outcome definition. Matches Class A criteria.
Canonical form
Houston Astros · Season Outright - Tournament Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 22 snapshots, oldest first):

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