Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-houston-rockets-win-the-2026-nba-finals__pinnacle

Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0045
Bid / Ask
0.0040 / 0.0050 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$173,634
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-07-01
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-basketball_nba_championship_winner-outrights
Implied probability
1.55 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle basketball_nba_championship_winner outrights, vig 19.50 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Houston Rockets", exact)
As of
2026-07-18 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Standardisierter Saison-Outright für NBA Championship. Outcome ist eindeutig (Rockets gewinnen oder nicht). Resolution-Quelle (NBA) ist akzeptiert. Auflösungsdatum weicht minimal ab (2026-07-01 vs. ~2026-06-30 Finals-Ende), liegt aber im erwarteten Fenster. Pinnacle bietet identische Märkte für alle 30 NBA-Teams als Saison-Winner an. Match-Klasse A erwartet.
Canonical form
Houston Rockets · NBA Championship · 2026-06-30

History

Spread history (last 8 snapshots, oldest first):

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