Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0075
Bid / Ask
0.0070 / 0.0080 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$4,814
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
0.75 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 20.89 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Kansas City Royals", exact)
As of
2026-06-03 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright market. Identical to Pinnacle's World Series winner offerings. Resolution source (MLB official + credible consensus) aligns with sportsbook standards. Binary outcome (Royals win or do not win). Resolution date falls within standard MLB World Series window (late October 2026). Minimal ambiguity in resolution criteria.
Canonical form
Kansas City Royals · Season Outright - Tournament Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 22 snapshots, oldest first):