Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-miami-marlins-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0055
Bid / Ask
0.0050 / 0.0060 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$33,441
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
0.30 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 20.89 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Miami Marlins", exact)
As of
2026-06-03 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright market for World Series winner. Sport domain with clear tournament-winner structure. Resolution date aligns with typical World Series completion (late October 2026). Official MLB as primary source is standard for Pinnacle sports betting. No quantitative thresholds or conditional logic beyond standard playoff elimination rules. High confidence match likelihood on Pinnacle.
Canonical form
MLB World Series 2026 · Season Outright Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 13 snapshots, oldest first):

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