Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-minnesota-timberwolves-win-the-2026-nba-finals__pinnacle

Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0065
Bid / Ask
0.0060 / 0.0070 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$529,097
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-07-01
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-basketball_nba_championship_winner-outrights
Implied probability
3.04 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle basketball_nba_championship_winner outrights, vig 19.50 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Minnesota Timberwolves", exact)
As of
2026-07-18 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Klasse A — identische Frage. Sport (Saison-Outright / Tournament-Winner). Standardisiertes Outcome: Timberwolves gewinnen 2026 NBA Finals oder nicht. Resolution-Quelle (NBA) ist primär und universell. Auflösungsdatum 2026-07-01 entspricht dem erwarteten Turnierende (ca. Juni 2026). Pinnacle und ähnliche etablierte Sportsbooks bieten 2026 NBA Finals Outrights an. Hohe Confidence für exakte Match-Klasse A auf Pinnacle.
Canonical form
Minnesota Timberwolves · NBA Finals Winner · 2026-06-30

History

Spread history (last 18 snapshots, oldest first):

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