Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-minnesota-twins-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0065
Bid / Ask
0.0060 / 0.0070 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$547
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
0.71 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 20.89 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Minnesota Twins", exact)
As of
2026-06-03 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright market. Identical to Pinnacle's World Series winner markets in terms of event definition, resolution source (official MLB), and outcome structure. Resolution date aligns with typical World Series completion (early November). Class A match expected with Pinnacle or equivalent sportsbooks. High confidence due to universal coverage of major US sports league championships.
Canonical form
MLB World Series 2026 · Season Outright / Tournament Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 22 snapshots, oldest first):

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