Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
GREEN
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.4150
Bid / Ask
0.4100 / 0.4200 (1c spread)
Volume 24h
$178,705
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-07-01
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-basketball_nba_championship_winner-outrights
Implied probability
23.98 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle basketball_nba_championship_winner outrights, vig 19.50 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Oklahoma City Thunder", exact)
As of
2026-07-18 08:00 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
1.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Klassische Saison-Outright-Wette auf NBA-Meister. Identischer Event (2026 NBA Finals), identisches Team, identisches Outcome-Format. Resolution-Termin 2026-07-01 liegt unmittelbar nach NBA Finals (typisch Ende Juni). NBA als Resolution-Quelle ist Standard bei Pinnacle. Pinnacle deckt alle Major-League-Meisterschaften ab. Klasse A erwartet.
Canonical form
Oklahoma City Thunder · NBA Championship Winner · 2026-06-30T23:59:59Z

History

Spread history (last 33 snapshots, oldest first):

11 colour changes in the tracking window.