Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-philadelphia-phillies-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 95.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0315
Bid / Ask
0.0310 / 0.0320 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$10,536
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
4.14 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 20.89 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Philadelphia Phillies", exact)
As of
2026-06-03 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
95.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright (World Series winner). Sport domain with clear tournament structure, defined resolution date (end of 2026 MLB season), and unambiguous outcome (single champion). Pinnacle typically offers comprehensive coverage of major season outrights across all MLB teams. Resolution source (MLB official) is universally accepted. No material deviations from canonical sports betting market format.
Canonical form
Philadelphia Phillies · Season Outright - Tournament Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 13 snapshots, oldest first):

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