Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-pittsburgh-pirates-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

BUY YES on Polymarket / SELL at pendant (Polymarket below pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0135
Bid / Ask
0.0130 / 0.0140 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$5,905
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
1.48 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 20.89 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Pittsburgh Pirates", exact)
As of
2026-06-03 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Standardisierte MLB-Saison-Outright-Frage mit eindeutiger Team-Identifikation und Meisterschafts-Outcome. Pinnacle deckt MLB World Series Winners ab. Resolution-Termin liegt nach erwarteter Saison-Ende (Oktober 2026). Keine Mehrdeutigkeiten oder Naming-Variationen. Identische Match-Klasse erwartet mit Standard-Sportsbook-Märkten.
Canonical form
Pittsburgh Pirates · season_outright · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 13 snapshots, oldest first):

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