Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0245
Bid / Ask
0.0240 / 0.0250 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$6,753
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
2.43 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 20.89 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "San Diego Padres", exact)
As of
2026-06-03 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright (World Series winner). Pinnacle offers comprehensive MLB championship markets. Identical outcome definition (Padres win 2026 WS), resolution date aligns with MLB season calendar, official MLB as primary source is standard. Class A match expected with Pinnacle or equivalent sportsbook.
Canonical form
San Diego Padres · season_outright_winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 22 snapshots, oldest first):