Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-texas-rangers-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0305
Bid / Ask
0.0300 / 0.0310 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$1,900
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
2.90 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 20.89 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Texas Rangers", exact)
As of
2026-06-03 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright bet on specific team to win World Series. Identical to Pinnacle's typical World Series winner markets. Resolution date aligns with expected end of 2026 MLB playoffs. Outcome is binary (Rangers win or do not win). High confidence match class A due to identical quantitative outcome, standard sports betting market structure, and reliable official MLB resolution source.
Canonical form
Texas Rangers · MLB Season Outright · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 22 snapshots, oldest first):

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