Altus Alpha › Mispricing Lab › will-the-washington-nationals-win-the-2026-world-series__pinnacle

Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?

sports · class A · confidence 98.00 %

Trade direction

SELL YES on Polymarket / BUY at pendant (Polymarket above pendant)

Traffic-light dimensions

Liquidity
RED
Polymarket bid-ask
GREEN
Match class
GREEN
Spread size
RED
Persistence
YELLOW

Polymarket

Question
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?
Outcome
Yes
Mid price
0.0055
Bid / Ask
0.0050 / 0.0060 (0c spread)
Volume 24h
$40,986
Open interest
$0
Resolution date
2026-10-31
Open Polymarket ↗

Pendant

Source
pinnacle
Instrument
pinnacle-baseball_mlb_world_series_winner-outrights
Implied probability
0.33 %
Pendant confidence
95.00 %
Notes
Pinnacle baseball_mlb_world_series_winner outrights, vig 20.89 % removed over 30 outcomes (matched "Washington Nationals", exact)
As of
2026-06-03 08:01 UTC

Cost breakdown

Polymarket bid-ask (% of trade)
0.00 %
Polymarket slippage assumption
1.00 %
Pendant cost
1.00 %

Classifier

Model
claude-haiku-4-5
Domain
sports
Match class
A
Confidence
98.00 %
Reasoning
Standard MLB season outright market for a specific team to win World Series in a given year. Identical to Pinnacle World Series Winner markets. Resolution date aligns with typical end of MLB postseason. Official MLB source is standard for both Polymarket and Pinnacle. Binary outcome structure (Win/No Win) matches Pinnacle's format precisely.
Canonical form
Washington Nationals · Season Outright - Tournament Winner · 2026-10-31

History

Spread history (last 22 snapshots, oldest first):

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