Hypothesis Engine

What it will do

• Define the thesis — market, outcome, directional expectation, confidence, time window.
• Map evidence — structured list of pro/con arguments with source references.
• Set triggers — entry/exit criteria (price threshold, news event, liquidity).
• Track outcomes — what actually happened, plus Brier-score comparison against your confidence.
• Hypothesis history — all your theses with hit rate over time, broken down by vertical (sports, politics, finance).

Why this matters

Discretionary trading on prediction markets degenerates fast into gut feel. A structured hypothesis forces you to articulate, before entry, what you believe, why you believe it, and under what conditions you'd be wrong. That's the difference between forecasting and betting.

Current status

Spec in preparation. Data model drafted, UI mock pending. Until launch: use the Kelly and EV calculators for the quantitative side and the Brier Score for self-evaluation.