From Desk to Platform

An internal trading methodology becoming the picks-and-shovels infrastructure for the prediction market industry. Here's what's built, what's building, and what's next.

Built & Live
70%
Ecosystem, predictions, content, tools, 22 club sites
Building Now
20%
Strategy pipeline, event database, hypothesis engine
Planned
10%
Backtesting API, transfer learning, Factory-as-a-Service
The thesis

Trading bots are not investable. Infrastructure is. We sell the Factory — the methodology, the backtesting engine, the event database. We keep the recipes — the specific strategies, parameters, and live allocations.

🏗️
Picks & Shovels

SaaS subscriptions for hypothesis + backtesting tools. Recurring, predictable.

💰
Transaction Revenue

5-10% P&L share on Factory-as-a-Service strategies. Aligned incentives.

📊
Data Asset

Annotated event database compounds with every resolved prediction. Defensible moat.

🔗
Network Effects

More users → better clusters → better backtests → more users. Platform economics.

Implementation roadmap

Phase 0 — Foundation
✓ Complete
The ecosystem is live. Content, predictions, tools, and 22 club sites deployed. Strategy Factory v1.0 operational internally.
closelook.net75+ pages, Weekly Signal, 31 indices, AI Infrastructure 101, Glossary. Self-hosted fonts, Schema.org, llms.txt.
aktebundesliga.net110+ pages, 7 decades, Soccer Economics (21 X-Rays), Intelligence Hub (SSG pipeline), 14 Enzyklopädie articles.
22 Club SitesAll deployed on Cloudflare Workers. DE+EN bilingual. Build system: akte-build.py v2. BVB as flagship.
Finance Predictionspredictions.closelook.net live. 50+ questions, 5 tracks, 3 tiers. Expert invites, embed strips, calendar auto-create.
Football Predictionspredictions.aktebundesliga.net live. 22 clubs, 3 tracks. Embedded on club sites and Intelligence Hub.
Trading ToolsKelly Calculator, EV Calculator, Value Signal Classifier live on closelook.soccer. 3 live JS tools.
Strategy Factory v1.07-stage pipeline, 3-sample methodology, 10 initial strategies, governance framework. Internal operational since Feb 2026.
Altus Alpha Hub11 pages: landing, platforms, 101 (6 articles), tools, strategy, infrastructure. Deployed on Cloudflare Pages.
Phase 1 — Data Foundation
Q2 2026 · Now
Building the annotated event database — the raw material for everything that follows. First 200 events with full context + PM price path + outcome.
Event DatabaseFirst 200 annotated events: context vectors + PM price path + news timeline + outcome. Schema design on Cloudflare D1.
Structural Event Clustering v15-dimension taxonomy implemented. Automated classifier for new events into nearest structural cluster.
Soccer Economics Rollout21 Financial X-Rays at 1/week pace. Bayern (April) through Schalke (August). Card grid live, data validation ongoing.
Club Site Auflockerung22 club sites receiving H3 subheadings, Rate Cards, Economics Teasers, Netzwerk links. Systematic SEO enrichment.
Phase 2 — Hypothesis Engine
Q3 2026
The first paid product: a structured hypothesis formulation and testing tool for PM traders.
Hypothesis Engine MVP14-field Strategy Specification template as web UI. Guided formulation, auto-populated fields, version control.
Three-Sample BacktestingAutomated Training/Validation/OOS pipeline. Upload hypothesis → select event cluster → get statistical report card.
LLM Counterfactual GeneratorClaude Sonnet generates 50 scenarios per event. Structured JSON output. Calibration protocol with held-out real events.
Revenue starts: $49-299/mo tiers
Phase 3 — Backtesting API
Q4 2026
Public API for backtesting. Cross-vertical transfer engine. Strategy Blueprints published.
Backtesting APIREST API: submit hypothesis + cluster → get automated 60/20/20 results. Usage-based pricing for institutional clients.
Cross-Vertical TransferFootball (high-N) calibrates Finance (low-N). Measured confidence intervals. Validated on held-out data.
Strategy BlueprintsAnonymized templates from SF portfolio — structure visible, parameters private. Educational content + upsell to full engine.
Revenue expands: $299-999/mo API tier
Phase 4 — Factory-as-a-Service
Q1 2027
The full 7-stage pipeline as a managed service for emerging PM funds.
Managed PipelineFull Strategy Factory for external clients: hypothesis support, automated gates, paper trading infra, live monitoring.
News-to-Price AttributionTimestamped correlation: which news moved which PM by how much. The European Edge quantified as data product.
Content DistributionBeehiiv newsletter automation (22 club segments). Podcast generation (Akte Nostalgie + Altus Alpha Fachstimme).
Revenue: $2,500/mo + 5-10% P&L share
Phase 5 — Scale
2027+
More verticals, more clusters, more data. Data licensing. Media partnerships. The flywheel at full speed.
New VerticalsEntertainment, politics, energy, tech M&A. Each gets content + predictions + Strategy Factory integration.
Data LicensingAnnotated event database, structural cluster taxonomy, calibrated synthetics. Annual licensing to quant funds, academia, media.
Media Embed PartnershipsPrediction strips + backtesting widgets embedded in kicker, Sport1, Handelsblatt. Revenue share.
Arbitrage Scanner + Whale TickerReal-time cross-platform tools. Consuming ecosystem partner data (Hashdive, Oddpool) rather than building from scratch.
All revenue streams active

Why now

Prediction markets are replaying financial market history at 10x speed. We're positioned at the inflection point between data terminals (Layer 2) and strategy infrastructure (Layer 3).

Exchanges (Layer 1) — 2020-2024

Polymarket, Kalshi, ForecastEx, Robinhood. Execution infrastructure built. 12B+ contracts traded on Robinhood alone in 2025.

Data Terminals (Layer 2) — 2024-2025

Hashdive, Oddpool, Verso, PrediEdge, PredictFolio. Bloomberg-style analytics being built now. Commoditizing fast.

Strategy Infra (Layer 3) — 2026+

Backtesting, hypothesis testing, systematic strategy development. Wide open. This is where Altus Alpha sits.

Recent market events confirm the acceleration: Polymarket partnering with Palantir for surveillance infrastructure, PolyGun acquiring Polymarket Analytics for copy trading + data. The ecosystem is consolidating around Layer 1 and Layer 2. Layer 3 remains unoccupied.

Not slides. A live ecosystem.

Every property listed on this roadmap is clickable. The content is real, the predictions are live, the tools work. This is not a pitch deck — it's a product you can use today.

Explore the ecosystem

See what's built, try the predictions, use the tools.

← The Ecosystem Strategy Factory → Innovation Layer → Partner / Investor Inquiry →