Professional infrastructure for prediction market trading — position sizing, expected value, and signal detection.
Optimal position sizing for prediction market trades. Input your estimated probability and the market price — get the Kelly-optimal bet size. We use ¼ Kelly as the conservative standard to account for estimation error.
Calculate the expected value of any prediction market trade. Only trade when EV is positive — the first rule of systematic event trading. Accounts for platform fees (Polymarket 0.10%, Kalshi variable).
Automatic detection of mispricing between Pinnacle fair values (vig-adjusted) and Polymarket prices. Three tiers: Watch (3pp+), Trade (5pp+), Strong Signal (10pp+).
Structured hypothesis builder for prediction markets. Define your thesis, map the evidence, set entry/exit criteria, and track outcomes. The research process before the trade.
Test your Directional Alpha patterns against historical prediction market data. How would your strategy have performed on past Bundesliga seasons or Fed cycles?
Real-time cross-platform arbitrage detection. Monitors Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair, and Smarkets for pricing discrepancies above fee thresholds.
Real-time feed of large trades on Polymarket and Kalshi. Filter by event category, contract size, and direction. Follow the smart money.