Kontextualisierte Backtesting-Infrastruktur, die mit 5-10 realen Events funktioniert. Drei Innovationen, die kein bestehendes PM-Analytics-Tool hat.
Hashdive zeigt Whale Trades. Oddpool zeigt Cross-Platform-Quoten. Verso baut ein Terminal. Niemand lässt dich TESTEN, ob eine PM-Trading-Idee tatsächlich funktioniert — mit ordnungsgemäßer Out-of-Sample-Validierung und Small-N-Kompensation. Diese Lücke füllen wir.
Die interessantesten Prognosemärkte haben die wenigsten Datenpunkte. Die Märkte mit reichlich Daten haben das geringste institutionelle Interesse.
Data points since PM mainstream (~2024). The paradox: the most tradeable events have the least testable data. Our infrastructure solves this.
Events nicht nach Thema gruppieren. Nach dem Verhalten der Prognosemärkte um sie herum gruppieren. A tariff announcement and a coaching dismissal are structurally identical — both are surprise-binary-fast events.
Scheduled (Fed, CPI, Matchday) vs. Surprise (Tariffs, Injuries, Sanctions)
Clean Yes/No (Win/Lose, Rate Cut) vs. Continuous (S&P level, vote share)
Fast (injury: minutes) vs. Slow (championship race: months)
Deep (US Election: $3B+) vs. Thin (Bundesliga transfer: <$50K)
Oracle-automated (match result, CPI) vs. Human judgment (ambiguous politics)
A "tariff announcement" with only 3-5 historical data points becomes backtestable when clustered with 30-50 structurally similar surprise-binary-fast events. The clustering turns untestable into testable.
Traditional synthetic data generates artificial price paths. We generate artificial event contexts — "what if the tariff was 25% instead of 10%?" — and model PM reactions.
Traditional synthetic data methods (GANs, Monte Carlo) operate on numbers. They generate plausible-looking price paths but cannot generate plausible-looking event contexts. A language model can understand that a 25% tariff is qualitatively different from 10% — not just numerically higher. It models second-order effects (retaliation chains), media reactions, and institutional positioning.
This is not hallucination. It is parametric scenario design with an LLM as domain expert, calibrated against real data points.
Synthetic scenarios are only valuable if they're calibrated against reality. For each cluster with 5+ real events: generate 50 counterfactuals per event, hold out 20% of real events as test set, train on 80% real + all synthetics, validate against held-out events. Track prediction error and publish calibration scores alongside all backtest results.
If the synthetic expansion doesn't improve predictions on held-out real events, it gets discarded. Radical transparency — the system earns trust through measurable calibration.
Certain PM behavioral patterns are domain-agnostic. Football (306 matches/season) calibrates finance models (8 Fed meetings/year). The high-N domain trains the low-N domain.
PM spreads narrow 2-4h before kickoff as late info arrives. Same pattern before FOMC?
Measurable in footballInjury news: 15-45min to full pricing. Tariff tweet: similar latency adjusted for liquidity?
Measurable in footballRed card causes 15-20% overshoot that mean-reverts. Surprise tariff: same overshoot?
HypotheseLow-liquidity transfer markets drift 5-8% on one large order over 24h. Niche politics: same?
Hypothesekicker-Tipps vs Polymarket on Bundesliga. Superforecasters vs Polymarket on macro. Same gap structure?
Measurable both sidesJede Fußball-Prognose, die durch das System läuft, verbessert die Genauigkeit des Finanz-Backtestings und umgekehrt. Dies erzeugt einen sich verdichtenden Daten-Asset, den kein Single-Vertical-Wettbewerber erreichen kann.
Der PM-Infrastruktur-Stack hat drei Schichten. Schicht 1 (Ausführung) und Schicht 2 (Daten) werden gebaut. Schicht 3 (Strategie) steht weit offen.
1. Domänen-Intelligenz — 22 Bundesliga-Club-Dossiers, KI-Infrastruktur-Research (31 Einträge), Soccer Economics. Jahre akkumulierter Content, der bedeutungsvolles Event-Clustering und Counterfactual-Generierung antreibt.
2. Live-Prognose-Daten — Finanz- und Fußball-Vertikale mit Brier-Score-Tracking liefern die realen Kalibrierungsdaten.
3. Cross-Vertical-Brücke — Kein Wettbewerber operiert sowohl in Finanzen als auch Sport mit Prognosedaten in beiden.
4. Die Strategy Factory — Funktionierende Methodik seit Februar 2026. Keine Idee — ein System.
Wir verkaufen die Factory. Die Rezepte behalten wir.